Economic Forecasts

  Surv. of Prof Forecasters (Aug) Wells Fargo (Sep) WSJ (Sep) Fed (Sep)

economic growth, 2014

2.1% 2.1% 2% 2-2.2%

economic growth, 2015

3.1% 3% 2.8% 2.6-3%

unemployment (end of 2014)

6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9-6%

unemployment (end of 2015)

5.6% (Q3) 5.5% 5.5% 5.4-5.6%

inflation, 2014

1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 1.5-1.7%

inflation, 2015

2% 2% 2.2% 1.6-1.9%

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Recent Forecasts

Fed Forecast as of Sep 2014: economic growth = 2-2.2% in 2014, 2.6-3% in 2015 and 2.6-2.9% in 2016; long-run economic growth = 2-2.3% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 5.9-6% in 2014, 5.4-5.6% in 2015, 5.1-5.4% in 2016 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 5.5%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.5 to 1.7% (core = 1.5-1.6%) in 2014, 1.6-1.9% (core = 1.6-1.9%) in 2015 and 1.7-2% in 2016 (core = 1.8-2%); median forecast for federal funds rate at end of 2015 = 1.25-1.5% (first rate increase in 2015); median forecast for end of 2016 = 2.75-3%; median rate in long run = 3.75%
Economic forecasting survey, Sep 2014 (WSJ): economic growth = 3% in 2014Q3 and 3% in 2014Q4; 2% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015; unemployment = 5.9% at end of 2014, 5.5% at end of 2015; inflation = 2.1% in 2014 and 2015; expect hike in federal funds rate in Spring 2015
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast, Sep 2014; Sep 5-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 2.9% in 2014Q3 and 3.1% in 2014Q4; 2.1% in 2014 and 3 in 2015; PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 2% in 2015; core CPI inflation = 1.8% in 2014, 2.1% in 2015; unemployment rate = 5.9% by the end of 2014 and 5.5% at end of 2015; Fed starts to raise the federal funds rate in 2Q of 2015
GDPNow: economic growth = 3.6% in 2014Q3 (Sep 4); this is a new forecast based on a model developed by the Atlanta Fed (though they are quick to note that it isn't the official forecast of the Atlanta Fed); it seeks to frequently revised estimates of quarterly GDP as new data becomes available
CBO (Aug 2014) - see chapter 2: econonomic growth = 1.5% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015 and 2016; output gap was -4% at the end of 2013; PCE inflation = 1.9% in 2014, 1.7% in 2015, 1.8% in 2016; core PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 1.9% in 2015 and 2016; unemployment rate = 5.9% at end of 2014, 5.8% at end of 2015, 5.7% at end of 2016; NAIRU = 5.5%, growth in potential GDP = 2.2%
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Aug 2014): economic growth = 3% in 2014Q3, 3.1% in 2014Q4; 2.1% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016; inflation (PCE)=1.8% in 2014 and 2% in 2015 (core PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate = 6% in 2014Q4, 5.6% in 2015Q3
Economic Report of the President: Midyear Update (see p7): economic growth = 2.6% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015, 3.2% in 2016; inflation = 1.8% in 2014, 2% in 2015, 2.1% in 2016; unemployment rate ends 2014 ar 6%, 5.6% in 2015, 5.4% in 2016; growth in potential GDP = 2.3%; NAIRU = 5.4%
Livingston Survey (latest survey - June 4, 2014): economic growth = 1.5% in first half of 2014, 3% in second half of 2014, 2.9% in first half of 2015; unemployment rate = 6.1% in Dec 2014, 5.9% in June 2015; inflation (CPI) = 1.8% for 2014 and 2% in 2015; long-term economic growth = 2.5%, inflation averages 2.35% over the next decade
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - May 14, 2014): economic growth = 2.5% in 2014, 3.2% in 2015; inflation (CPI) = 1.6% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate averages 6.4% in 2014 and falls to 5.7% by the end of 2015
Quarterly economic survey (USA Today - May 2014): economic growth = 3.3% in 2014Q2, 3% in 2014Q3-2015Q2; unemployment rate = 6.1% by end of 2014; QE3 ends by October 2014, begin to increase the federal funds rate in 2015Q2

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan AreaFlorida

 

last updated: 09/17/2014