Economic Forecasts

  Surv. of Prof Forecasters (Feb) Wells Fargo (Apr) WSJ (Apr) Fed (Mar) CBO (Feb)

economic growth, 2014

2.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8-3% 3.1%

economic growth, 2015

3.1% 3.1% 3% 3.0-3.2% 3.4%

unemployment (end of 2014)

6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1-6.3% 6.7%

unemployment (end of 2015)

6.1% (average) 5.8% 5.7% 5.6-5.9% 6.3%

inflation, 2014

1.6% 1.4% 1.9% 1.5-1.6% 1.5%

inflation, 2015

1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.5-2.0% 1.7%

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Recent Forecasts

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast, Apr 2014; Apr 18-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 0.4% in 2014Q1 and 2.8% in 2014Q2; 2.3% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015; PCE inflation = 1.4% in 2014, 1.8% in 2015; core CPI inflation = 1.7% in 2014, 2.1% in 2015; unemployment rate = 6.3% by the end of 2014 and 5.8% at end of 2015; Fed starts to raise the federal funds rate in Summer 2015
Economic forecasting survey, Apr 2014 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.5% in 2014Q1, 3% in 2014Q2; 2.7% in 2014 and 3% in 2015; unemployment = 6.2% at end of 2014, 5.7% at end of 2015; inflation = 1.9% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015; expect interest rate hike in June 2015
Fed Forecast as of Mar 2014: economic growth = 2.8-3% in 2014, 3-3.2% in 2015 and 2.5-3% in 2016; long-run economic growth = 2.2-2.3% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 6.1-6.3% in 2014, 5.6-5.9% in 2015, 5.2%-5.6% in 2016 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 5.6%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.5 to 1.6% (core = 1.4-1.6%) in 2014, 1.5-2% (core = 1.7-2%) in 2015 and 1.7-2% in 2016 (core = 1.8-2%); median forecast for federal funds rate at end of 2015 = 1% (first rate increase in 2015); median forecast for end of 2016 = 2.25%; median rate in long run = 4%
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - Mar 18, 2014): economic growth = 2.7% in 2014, 3.3% in 2015; inflation (CPI) = 1.4% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015); unemployment rate averages 6.5% in 2014 and 5.9% in 2015
Economic Report of the President (see p85 onwards): economic growth = 3.3% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015, 3.3% in 2016; inflation = 1.9% in 2014, 2.1% in 2015, 2.2% in 2016; unemployment rate averages 6.9% in 2014, 6.4% in 2015, 6% in 2016; growth in potential GDP = 2.4% through 2020 and 2.3% afterwards; NAIRU = 5.4%
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Feb 2014): economic growth = 2% in 2014Q1, 3% in 2014Q2; 2.8% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015, 3.1% in 2016; inflation (PCE)=1.6% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015 (core PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015); unemployment rate = 6.3% in 2014Q4; average unemployment rate = 6.1% in 2015, 5.7% in 2016
Quarterly economic survey -details (USA Today - Feb 2014): economic growth = 2.8% in 2014Q1, 2.9% in Q2, 2.8% for 2014; unemployment rate = 6.3% by end of 2014; QE3 ends by October 2014
CBO (Feb 4): economic growth = 3.1% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015 and 2016 (baseline); unemployment rate = 6.7% at end of 2014, 6.3% at end of 2015, 6% at end of 2016; PCE inflation = 1.5% in 2014, 1.7% in 2015; potential GDP grows by 2% in 2014-2017, about 2.2% in 2018 and afterwards; natural rate of unemployment = 5.5%
IMF (Jan): US economic growth = 2.8% in 2014, 3% in 2015
Livingston Survey (latest survey - Dec 12, 2013): economic growth = 2.5% in first half of 2014, 2.8% in second half of 2014; unemployment rate = 7% in June 2014, 6.7% in Dec 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.8% for 2014 and 2.1% in 2015; long-term economic growth = 2.6%, inflation averages 2.3% over the next decade

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan AreaFlorida

 

last updated: 04/18/2014