Economic Forecasts

  Surv. of Prof. Forecasters (May) Wells Fargo (May) WSJ (May) Fed (Mar) CBO (Feb) OMB (Apr) IMF (April)
economic growth, 2013 2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3 to 2.8% 1.4% 2.6% 1.9%
economic growth, 2014 2.8% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9 to 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3%
unemployment (end of 2013) 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3 to 7.5% 8% 7.5% 7.7% (avg)
unemployment (end of 2014) 7.1% (average) 7.2% 6.7% 6.7 to 7% 7.6% 7% 7.5% (avg)
inflation, 2013 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.3 to 1.7% 1.3% 2.2% 1.8%
inflation, 2014 2% 1.8% 2.2% 1.5 to 2% 1.8% 2.2% 1.7%

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Recent Forecasts

NABE Forecast: economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3% in 2014; unemployment rate = 7.4% by end of 2013, 6.8% in late 2014; inflation = 1.9% in 2013, 2.1% in 2014
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (2013 annual forecast; latest monthly forecast, May 2013; latest forecast, May 17-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.2% in 2013Q2 and 2% in 2013Q3; 1.8% in 2013, and 2.1% in 2014; PCE inflation = 1.2% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014; core CPI inflation = 1.8% in 2013, 2% in 2014; unemployment rate = 7.4% by end of 2013 and 7.2% by the end of 2014
Economic forecasting survey, May 2013 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.9% in 2013Q2, 2.5% in 2013Q3; 2.4% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014 and 3% in 2015; unemployment = 7.3% at end of 2013, 6.7% at end of 2014, 6.2% at end of 2015; inflation = 1.8% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015; expect interest rate hike in 2014; Fed begins to reduce QE3 in late 2013, end of QE3 in Spring 2014
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey May 2013): economic growth = 1.8% in 2013Q2, 2.3% in 2013Q3; 2% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014, 3% in 2015; core inflation (PCE)=1.5% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015 (overall PCE inflation=1.4% in 2013, 2% in 2014 and 2015); unemployment rate = 7.4% in 2013Q4; average unemployment rate = 7.1% in 2014, 6.6% in 2015
IMF (April-see table 2.2): US economic growth = 1.9% in 2013, 3% in 2014; inflation = 1.8% in 2013, 1.7% in 2013; unemployment averages 7.7% in 2013, 7.5% in 2013
OMB (Apr 2013 - see page 11): economic growth = 2.6% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 and 3.6% in 2015; unemployment (Q4) = 7.5% in 2013, 7% in 2014, 6.5% in 2015; inflation = 2.2% in 2013-2015; natural rate of unemployment = 5.4%, growth in potential GDP = 2.4%; see pdf page 15 for comparison with other forecasts
Fed Forecast as of March 2013: economic growth = 2.3%-2.8% in 2013, 2.9-3.4% in 2014 and 2.9-3.7% in 2015; long-run economic growth = 2.3-2.5% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 7.3-7.5% in 2013, 6.7-7% in 2014, 6-6.5% in 2015 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 6%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.3-1.7% in 2013 (core = 1.5-1.6%), 1.5 to 2% (core = 1.7-2%) in 2014, and 1.7-2% (core = 1.8-2.1%) in 2015
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - March 18, 2013): economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3% in 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.6% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014 (core inflation = 1.8% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014); unemployment rate averages 7.6% in 2013 and declines to 7.1% by end of 2014
Quarterly economic survey (USA Today - Feb 10, 2013): economic growth = 1.8% in 2013Q1, 2% in 2013Q2; unemployment rate = 7.5% by end of 2013, inflation = 2% in 2013
CBO (Feb 5): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 (baseline assumes the implementation of spending cuts); unemployment rate = 8% at end of 2013, 7.6% at end of 2014, 6.8% at end of 2015; PCE inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014; growth in potential GDP = 2.3% for 2019-2023; potential GDP grows by 1.8% in 2013, about 2% in 2014-2015, 2.3-2.4% afterwards; natural rate of unemployment = 6%, but begins to decline very slowly in 2014
World Bank (Jan 2013): economic growth = 1.9% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014, 3% in 2015; inflation = 2.4% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014 and 2015
Livingston Survey (latest survey - Dec 12, 2012): economic growth = 2.1% in first half of 2013, 2.3% in second half of 2013; unemployment rate = 7.8% in June 2013, 7.7% in Dec 2013; inflation (CPI) = 2.1% for 2012 and 2013; long-term economic growth = 2.5%, inflation averages 2.5% over the next decade

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan Area;  Florida

 

last updated: 05/20/2013