Economic Forecasts

	Surv. of Prof Forecasters (Nov)	Wells Fargo (Jan)	WSJ (Jan)	Fed (Dec)
economic growth, 2016	2.6%	2%	2.5%	2.4%
economic growth, 2017	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	2.2%
unemployment (end of 2016)	4.7%	4.6%	4.7%	4.7%
unemployment (end of 2017)	4.7% (avg for year)	4.4%	4.6%	4.7%
inflation, 2016	1.8%	1.2%	1.9%	1.6%
inflation, 2017	1.9%	2%	2.3%	1.9%

Recent Forecasts

Economic forecasting survey, Jan 2016 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.4% in 2015Q4, 2.4% in 2016Q1 & 2.5% in 2016Q2; 2.5% in 2016, 2.4% in 2017 & 2.3% in 2018; unemployment = 4.7% at end of 2016, 4.6% at end of 2017 inflation = 1.9% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017; federal funds rate = 1.14% in Dec 2016, 2.12% in Dec 2017; 66% chance of next rate hike in March 2016
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (annual forecast, Dec 2015; monthly forecast -January, Jan 8-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 0.4% in 2015Q4; 1.9% in 2016Q1 and 2.5% in 2016Q2; 2% in 2016, 2.4% in 2017; PCE inflation = 1.2% in 2016, 2% in 2017; core CPI inflation = 2% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017; unemployment rate = 4.6% at end of 2016, 4.4% at end of 2017; federal funds rate = 1.25% in 2015Q4, 2.25% in 2017Q4
Fed Forecast as of Dec 2015: economic growth = 2.4% in 2016, 2.2% in 2017 and 2% in 2018; long-run economic growth = 2% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 4.7% in 2016, 4.7% in 2017 and 2018 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 4.9%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.6% (core = 1.6%) in 2016, 1.9% in 2017 (core = 1.9%) and 2% in 2018 (core = 2%); median forecast for federal funds rate at end of 2016 = 1.4%, end of 2017 = 2.4%; median rate in long run = 3.3%
GDPNow: economic growth = 0.8% in 2015Q4 (Jan 8); this is a forecast based on a model developed by the Atlanta Fed that seeks to frequently revise estimates of quarterly GDP as new data become available
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Nov 2015): economic growth = 2.6% in 2015Q4, 2.5% in 2016Q1, 2.6% in 2016Q2; 2.8% in 2016, 2.5% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018; inflation (PCE) = 1.8% in 2016, 1.9% in 2017 (core PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2016, 1.7% in 2017); unemployment rate = 4.7% in 2016Q4
Livingston Survey (latest survey - Dec 10, 2015): economic growth = 2.5% in first half of 2016, 2.6% in second half of 2016; unemployment rate = 4.8% in June 2016, 4.6% in Dec 2016; inflation (CPI) = 1.8% for 2016 and 2.2% in 2017; long-term economic growth = 2.25%, inflation averages 2.25% over the next decade
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - Nov 2015): economic growth = 2.8% in 2016, 2.8% in 2017; inflation (CPI) = 1.6% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017 (core inflation = 1.9% in 2016, 2% in 2017); unemployment rate falls to 4.9 in 2016 and 4.6% in 2017

last updated: 01/15/2016