Economic Forecasts

  Surv. of Prof. Forecasters (May) Wells Fargo (July) WSJ (July) Fed (June) CBO (Feb) OMB (July) IMF (July/April for UR and inf)
economic growth, 2013 2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3 to 2.6% 1.4% 2.4% 1.7%
economic growth, 2014 2.8% 2.4% 2.8% 3 to 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7%
unemployment (end of 2013) 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2 to 7.3% 8% 7.3% 7.5% (avg)
unemployment (end of 2014) 7.1% (average) 7.2% 6.7% 6.5 to 6.8% 7.6% 6.8% 7.2% (avg)
inflation, 2013 1.4% 1.1% 1.7% 0.8 to 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8%
inflation, 2014 2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4 to 2% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8%

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Recent Forecasts

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast, July 2013; latest forecast, July 19-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.2% in 2013Q2 and 2.2% in 2013Q3; 1.6% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014; PCE inflation = 1.1% in 2013, 1.9% in 2014; core CPI inflation = 1.8% in 2013, 2.1% in 2014; unemployment rate = 7.4% by end of 2013 and 7.2% by the end of 2014
Economic forecasting survey, July 2013 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.5% in 2013Q2, 2.4% in 2013Q3; 2.1% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014 and 3% in 2015; unemployment = 7.3% at end of 2013, 6.7% at end of 2014, 6.2% at end of 2015; inflation = 1.7% in 2013, 2.1% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015; expect interest rate hike in late 2014; Fed begins to reduce QE3 in late 2013, end of QE3 in Spring 2014
OMB (July 2013 - see page 6-7): economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015; unemployment (Q4) = 7.3% in 2013, 6.8% in 2014, 6.3% in 2015; inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014-2015; natural rate of unemployment = 5.4%; see pdf page 9 for comparison with other forecasts
IMF (July): US economic growth = 1.7% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014
Fed Forecast as of June 2013: economic growth = 2.3%-2.6% in 2013, 3-3.5% in 2014 and 2.9-3.6% in 2015; long-run economic growth = 2.3-2.5% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 7.2-7.3% in 2013, 6.5-6.8% in 2014, 5.8-6.2% in 2015 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 6%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 0.8-1.2% in 2013 (core = 1.2-1.3%), 1.4 to 2% (core = 1.5-1.8%) in 2014, and 1.6-2% (core = 1.7-2%) in 2015
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - June 17, 2013): economic growth = 2.2% in 2013, 3% in 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.4% in 2013 and 2014 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2013 and 1.8% in 2014); unemployment rate averages 7.5% in 2013 and declines to 6.8% by end of 2014
Livingston Survey (latest survey - June 6, 2013): economic growth = 2.2% in first half of 2013, 2.3% in second half of 2013, 2.8% in first half of 2014; unemployment rate = 7.5% in June 2013, 7.4% in Dec 2013, 7.2% in June 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.5% for 2013 and 2% in 2014; long-term economic growth = 2.6%, inflation averages 2.5% over the next decade
NABE Forecast: economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3% in 2014; unemployment rate = 7.4% by end of 2013, 6.8% in late 2014; inflation = 1.9% in 2013, 2.1% in 2014
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey May 2013): economic growth = 1.8% in 2013Q2, 2.3% in 2013Q3; 2% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014, 3% in 2015; core inflation (PCE)=1.5% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015 (overall PCE inflation=1.4% in 2013, 2% in 2014 and 2015); unemployment rate = 7.4% in 2013Q4; average unemployment rate = 7.1% in 2014, 6.6% in 2015
Quarterly economic survey (USA Today - May 2013): economic growth = 2.2% in 2013Q3, 2.7% in 2013Q4; unemployment rate = 7.3% by end of 2013
CBO (Feb 5): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 (baseline assumes the implementation of spending cuts); unemployment rate = 8% at end of 2013, 7.6% at end of 2014, 6.8% at end of 2015; PCE inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014; growth in potential GDP = 2.3% for 2019-2023; potential GDP grows by 1.8% in 2013, about 2% in 2014-2015, 2.3-2.4% afterwards; natural rate of unemployment = 6%, but begins to decline very slowly in 2014
World Bank (Jan 2013): economic growth = 1.9% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014, 3% in 2015; inflation = 2.4% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014 and 2015

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan AreaFlorida

 

last updated: 07/19/2013