Economic Forecasts

  Surv. of Prof Forecasters (May) Wells Fargo (Aug) WSJ (Aug) Fed (June)

economic growth, 2015

2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8-2%

economic growth, 2016

2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4-2.7%

unemployment (end of 2015)

5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.2-5.3%

unemployment (end of 2016)

5% (avg for year) 4.8% 4.8% 4.9-5.1%

inflation, 2015

0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.6-0.8%

inflation, 2016

1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6-1.9%

Recent Forecasts

Economic forecasting survey, Aug 2015 (WSJ): economic growth = 2.7% in 2015Q3, 2.8% in 2015Q4 & 2.6% in 2016Q1; 2.2% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016 & 2.5% in 2017; unemployment = 5.1% at end of 2015, 4.8% at end of 2016; inflation = 1.1% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016; expect hike in federal funds rate in September 2015 (82%); 68.5% concerned that Fed will wait too long to raise rates
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast, Aug 2015; Aug 7-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.6% in 2015Q3, 2.3% in 2015Q4 and 2.6% in 2016Q1; 2.1% in 2015, 2.5% in 2016; PCE inflation = 0.4% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016; core CPI inflation = 1.8% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016; unemployment rate = 5.2% at end of 2015, 4.8% at end of 2016; Fed starts to raise the federal funds rate in 2015Q3; federal funds rate = 0.75% in 2015Q4, 1.75% in 2016Q4
Fed Forecast as of June 2015: economic growth = 1.8-2% in 2015, 2.4-2.7% in 2016 and 2.1-2.5% in 2017; long-run economic growth = 2-2.3% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 5.2-5.3% in 2015, 4.9-5.1% in 2016, 4.9-5.1% in 2017 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5 to 5.2%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 0.6-0.8% (core = 1.3-1.4%) in 2015, 1.6-1.9% in 2016 (core = 1.6-1.9%) and 1.9-2% in 2017 (core = 1.9-2%); median forecast for federal funds rate at end of 2015 = 0.5-0.75% (first rate increase in 2015); median forecast for end of 2016 = 1.5-1.75%; median rate in long run = 3.75%
GDPNow: economic growth = 0.7% in 2015Q3 (Aug 13); this is a forecast based on a model developed by the Atlanta Fed that seeks to frequently revise estimates of quarterly GDP as new data become available
Livingston Survey (latest survey - June 10, 2015): economic growth = 0.9% in first half of 2015, 3.1% in second half of 2015, 2.9% in first half 2016; unemployment rate = 5.4% in June 2015, 5.1% in Dec 2015, 5% in June 2016; inflation (CPI) = 0.1% for 2015 and 2.1% in 2016; long-term economic growth = 2.5%, inflation averages 2.2% over the next decade
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey May 2015): economic growth = 2.5% in 2015Q2, 3.1% in 2015Q3; 2.4% in 2015, 2.8% in 2016, 2.8% in 2017; inflation (PCE) = 0.8% in 2015, 1.9% in 2015 and 2016 (core PCE inflation = 1.4% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2016); unemployment rate = 5.2% in 2015Q4
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - May 15, 2015): economic growth = 2.4% in 2015, 3.1% in 2016; inflation (CPI) = 0.1% in 2015, 2% in 2016 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016); unemployment rate falls to 5.1% by the end of 2015 and 4.7% by the end of 2016
CBO (Jan 2015) - econonomic growth = 2.9% in 2015 and 2016, 2.5% in 2016; output gap was -4% at the end of 2013; PCE inflation = 1.4% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016, 2% in 2017; core PCE inflation = 1.8% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016 and 2017; unemployment rate = 5.4% at end of 2015, 5.3% at end of 2016 and 2017; NAIRU = 5.3%, growth in potential GDP = 2.1%

last updated: 08/14/2015