Title: The Real Population Problem
By Jay Kimball, 03 January, 2010
How
to learn well ? .... go here 
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Write for five minutes without stopping:
How does the author make his point?
"Less Is The New More
Though Americans represent only 5% of the world’s population, we are consuming about 24% of worlds energy. We are similarly voracious consumers of water, food, land, etc. Citizens in developing nations aspire to live the American lifestyle. Fareed Zakaria refers to this as the “rise of the rest” in his book A Post American World. But the world has only so much to give. Much of what we consume is not renewable. We are bumping up against the limits of earth’s ability to provide for us."
Jay Kimball, 2010
use the
1. this is what was said.
"Citizens in developing nations aspire to live the American lifestyle."
2. this is why it is important.
3. this is what was said because of its importance remember the lesson.
"And it’s not just about the number of people on the planet, but how those people consume resources. Let’s take a look at the pertinent trends."
1. 2. 3. approach: 
1. this is what I said.
2. this is why it is important.
3. this is what I said because of its importance remember the lesson.
Jonathan Swift
1729
How often we find, in a small thing, the reflection of the universe itself which evokes a response from you.
Population versus consumption
The rate of population growth is slowing overall, but the longer people live the larger the population.
By “rise of the rest” the author is referring to the eclipse of American power by China, India, & Brazil and Indonesia.
Definitions:
• lifestyle, portmanteau word: life + style. the ways that a person or group lives, or behaves when living
• voracious, devouring vast quantities, eagerly engaging in an activity.
• not renewable, describes the types of resources such as fossil fuels that are depleted and not re-used, or the rates at which use of a resource exhausts the capability of restoring the source.
Dates:
1729, Jonathan Swift, "A Modest Proposal."
1789, Thomas R. Malthus wrote "On Population"
1790, 791 million
1850, 1,262 million
1900, 1,650 million
1960, 2,532 million
2000, 6,122 million
2014, 7,185 million
What was happening in the 18th century in Britain and France to spark such concerns about too many people?
Is the author correct in suggesting the transition from coal to oil sped up the increase in population growth?
Data:
Demographic Transition is the process by which high fertility and mortality are converted by wealth over time to low fertility and mortality.
"(N.B. data presented for 1965 through 2008, 1 year steps, circle area proportional to population size, energy use in tonnes of oil equivalent):"
Jay Kimball, 2010.
"I do therefore humbly offer it to publick Consideration, that of the Hundred and twenty thousand Children, already computed, twenty thousand may be reserved for Breed, whereof only one Fourth part to be Males; which is more than we allow to Sheep, black Cattle, or Swine, and my Reason is, that these Children are seldom the Fruits of Marriage, a Circumstance not much regarded by our Savages, therefore, one Male will be sufficient to serve four Females. That the remaining Hundred thousand may, at a year old, be offered in Sale to the Persons of Quality and Fortune, through the kingdom, always advising the Mother to let them suck plentifully in the last month, so as to render them plump, and fat for a good Table."
Jonathan Swift, A Modest Proposal, 1729.
Argument
The Real Population ProblemBy Jay Kimball
03 January, 2010
8020vision.com"Google Trends tells me that starting in 2008 the monthly number of news stories on population doubled. Most of the stories like to talk about how global population will expand by 30%, peaking at about 9.1 billion people by around 2050. Though 2050 is a nice round number, and a convenient mid-century marker, one can be lulled in to feeling like it’s a problem that is 40 years off. Not so. The population problem is here and now. And it’s not just about the number of people on the planet, but how those people consume resources. Let’s take a look at the pertinent trends."
"The rate of population growth has a strong correlation with the effectiveness of the dominant fuel source at any given point in history. As the chart below shows, wood was the dominant fuel until coal came on the scene in the 1600s. The population growth rate increased modestly with the proliferation of coal. But the real exponential growth began with the discovery and exploitation of crude oil. Crude oil production is peaking and the world is in the early stages of a transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy."
Jay Kimball, 2010.
China, Brazil and India – Chasing the American Dream
"As the population has grown, per capita income and consumption have grown. The most dramatic growth has been in the developing countries of China, Brazil and India. Let’s take a look at the trends in energy use and per capita income relative to some of the leading developed nations. Using GapMinder’s Trendalyzer with energy consumption data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 and income data from the IMF, we can see some powerful trends unfolding ."
Jay Kimball, 2010.
Conclusion
Conservation is the foundation of development
Closing the loops and forging stronger links in an enduring chain of renewal.
Lesson
A dialectical argument always requires synthesis if the conclusions drawn from the data are to be effectively applied to resolving a problem, or adapting to a predicament.
"Population," J.V. Siry
Population and Environment, J. Siry, Table of Contents & primary documents: Swift, Malthus, Mill, Sangar.
Bill McKibben, Maybe One: The Case for Smaller Families, (New York: Plume [Penguin], 1999-98)
Garrett Hardin, The Ostrich Factor, (New York, Oxford University Press, 1998)
World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau, 'Washington D.C. 2012'
Stephen J. Rose, Social Stratification in the US, [chart & poster] (latest edition)
Wiki for this class: The World at 7 Billion.
Title | Background | Information | Essay | Argument | Conclusion | Lesson
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