Population dynamics:

"trend is not destiny"

Garrett Hardin

contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids
The demographic transition theory    
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Dynamics of growth
Describing the demographic transition theory.

What are dynamics?


Can you tell the stages that Europe is moving through over time from the above animated population pyramid?

Population dynamics is the branch of life sciences that studies short-term and long-term changes in the size and age composition of populations, and the biological and environmental processes influencing those changes.

How do we explain population dynamics with regards to the World and our pieces of that world?

Subjects on the wiki site?

contraception | Japan | United Kingdom | Syria case study | Energy | population pyramids



The World is a constantly accelerating place.

Human population dynamics

Age composition of any population is crucial to comprehend for the five following reasons:

      1. population dynamics
      2. life expectancy
      3. cohort fertility rate
      4. TFR - Total Fertility Rate
      5. growth and doubling time {can reveal market irregularities or robust markets}

      Reading age specific (cohort) enumerations of populations or "population pyramids."

        population age structure

        How to read a "population pyramid."


        The prediction | The transition

      The Syrian versus the United States' age structure: Wiki page; population dynamics


      contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids



The analysis of demographic change is population dynamics.

      Predicting unrest?

      Past enemies.



      world Syria population age structure

      contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids



      Syria-population profile

      Syria Map

      "There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict."

      Kelley et. al. "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought" PNAS; National Academy of Sciences vol. 112 no. 11 > Colin P. Kelley, 3241–3246, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112.

      2011, The Arab Spring: revolts in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, & Syria.


      Time line for current events

Japan as a key nation in the world, Third in economic muscle; though that is disputed by India.



Can we grow any larger as a human race?

  The baby boom years.  
United States population growth from natural increase based on cohort sizes.  


Dynamic Evidence

The metric:


worldSix reasons that the world does not stand still:

      1. Second Law of Thermodynamics (entropy)
      2. Ecological tithe (ten percent caloric energy retrieval)(nutrition)
      3. Law of Population Growth (doubling time is the period over which a population will double)
        1. 70 to 140 years is slow growth 1% to .5% per annum
        2. 35 to 50 years is fast 2% or more per year
        3. 25 years is about the fastest a human population can double based on high crude fertility & TF rates)
      4. Technological obsolescence (television, recording devices, electronics; old devices are replaced by current ones))
      5. Density of the population (the move from rural to urban areas worldwide is ongoing)
      6. Migration rate (people are on the move from place to place)



    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids



Population pyramids

What is morphology, a study of form?

the study of the forms of things, in particular:
Biology – morphology is the branch of biology that deals with the form of living organisms, and with relationships between their forms, shape, size, and structures.
Linguistics – morphology is the study of the forms of words.

How to interpret a "population pyramid"

Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model.

Relative sizes of the cohorts in four year groups. When?
United Kingdom Generations
World War Two
14 years ago

United Kingdom's population structure in 2000.


    contraception | United States population structure | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids




It is based on an analysis of Cohort Fertility Rates; that is the number born in a given year separated by gender into male & female.

Demography the "structure" of the population is the shape of the stacked cohorts to reveal cohort life expectancy:


Growth is visually portrayed in more than one manner.

How population changes based on the TFR: United Nations map of fertility rates over seventy years.



    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids



A generation's experiences of

Wars, famines, & birth control:

France & Germany once bitter rivals; formed the European Common Market on March 25, 1957.


66 million inhabitants of France and 80 million inhabitants of Germany in 2013.


France in 1990 and Germany in 2009 reveal the impact of war & population decline.


Germany in 1939


    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids


Margaret Sanger's legacy


Use of contraceptive devices for health and family planning.

Birth control


    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids




China history of population

China Map

Density and Disorder

a double shot of difficult challenges: the twin necessities of arable land & biological diversity.




    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids



The world:

International topics

    contraception | Japan | Syria case study | population pyramids


Forested areas of the United States and Acid precipitation readings from fossil fuel use.



Where are we going to be growing?



A geographer knows more than we do!

The mountains of men and women are like . . . casting shadows across the land?


The largest US cities:


If the USA where split into equal population areas.




Garrett Hardin is critical of subsidies.

( The Ostrich Factor, p. 143-145. )

Subsidies, how much do energy fuels get what from whom?


The percentage of subsidies to types of fuel sources that are the energy generating pie:



What is the country's demographic characteristics?

Projecting the nation's growth

    Syrian Arab Republic's Statistical portrait
    life expectancy
    Modern Contraception
    millions     2007 2013        
    22 17 3 $1,850 74 35% 38% 54% 119
            Male Female        
            72 78        
    Undeveloped 64 4.3 $1,970 60 62 40% 30% 28%
    World Bank


Its oldest City

Syria Map

Syria is among the more densely populated nations in Western Asia.


Reference pages



28        Siry, 5 & 6. Density 

Here is how one professor's approaches the problem of population morphology: University of Arizona

Heritage for Peace


30        √ ReportsHow do you and your parents diverge & converge on family sizes? (Post to Wiki).



GNI is the sum of value added by all resident producers plus any product taxes (less subsidies) not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income (compensation of employees and property income) from abroad.

GNI, calculated in national currency, is usually converted to U.S. dollars at official exchange rates for comparisons across economies, 
World Bank

Morphology, the study of structural change over time; the shape of a demographic profile shifts over time.


Most populated nations in the world | Land Area | Largest land-areas