global warmingNavigating the site:
Freeman Dyson,
Princeton Physicist writes about global warming policy, faith, civil religion and evidence.
New York Review of Books, June 12, 2008, pp. 43-45.
"The main point is religious rather than scientific."
p. 45.
- Dyson's spin
- The pro-active argument at: The Pew climate center
- The other side at: www.Climate-Skeptic.com
Evidence | Dyson's analysis | commentary | conclusions | new findings
Evidence
70 Parts per million increase over fifty years is a 22 percent increase atmospheric in carbon dioxide
Recent monitoring carbon dioxide levels and the Keeling curve.
"show an unbroken record of rising carbon dioxide abundance extending over fifty years, The graph has two obvious conspicuous features.
- First a steady increase in carbon dioxide with time beginning at 315 parts per million in 1958 and reaching 385 parts per million in 2008."
- "Second, a regular wiggle showing a yearly cycle of growth and decline of carbon dioxide levels
p. 43.
Dyson's analysis
growth of the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
"the net growth of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere summer absorbs about 4 percent of the total carbon dioxide in the high latitude atmosphere every year."
p. 43.
"When we put together the evidence from the wiggles and the distribution of vegetation over the earth it turns out that about 8 percent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by vegetation and returned to the atmosphere every year."
"This means that the average lifetime of a molecule of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before it is captured by vegetation and afterward released is about twelve years."
p. 43.
This fact that the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and vegetation is rapid, is of fundamental importance to the long range future of global warming.
p. 43.
fluctuations in the annual rise and fall of carbon dioxide
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Commentary
The new religion of the environment
loss of civility in public discussion of scientific research
"Environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading secular religion. And the ethics of environmentalism are fundamentally sound. Scientists and economists can agree with Buddhist monks and Cristian activists that ruthless destruction of natural habitats is evil and careful preservation of birds and butterflies is good."
"Environmentalism, as a religion of hope and respect for nature is here to stay. This is a religion that we can all share, whether or not we believe that global warming is harmful."
p. 45.
scientific research and the necessity of a skeptical stance
The speed of warming is harmful.
doubt in science is necessary, in policy it calls for adaptive management. "
p. 45.
conclusions
There are serious consequences to not acting to reduce our polution.
Amount of carbon dioxide in the air is unprecedented in its rapid rise and the current level."
Since carbon dioxide accumulation is a rate problem, the undiminished reduction of pollution, will prompt a doubling of present levels in 35 to 50 years."
Science and religion are treading on common ground --if in different contexts."
The opportunity to act effectively is only available for a decade or two because of the resident time of carbon dioxide in the air and seas."
Evidence | Dyson's analysis | commentary | conclusions | new findings
